Understanding the international great moderation∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
The majority of OECD countries has experienced a reduction in the volatility of output during the past two and a half decades. This period has also been characterized by a process of capital accounts liberalization among these countries. We study an open economy business cycle model with financial market frictions and show that the international liberalization of capital markets can lead to lower volatility of output and higher co-movement among the liberalizing countries.
منابع مشابه
Understanding the International Great Moderation Understanding the International Great Moderation * Very Preliminary and Incomplete
The majority of OECD countries has experienced a reduction in the volatility of output during the last two decades. This period is also characterized by the liberalization of the capital accounts of these countries. This paper examines whether capital markets liberalization can lead to lower macroeconomic volatility. We study a business cycle model with multiple countries and financial market f...
متن کاملWhat Caused The Great Moderation? Some Cross-Country Evidence
Over the last 20 years or so, the volatility of aggregate economic activity has fallen dramatically in most of the industrialized world. The timing and nature of the decline vary across countries, but the phenomenon has been so widespread and persistent that it has earned the label: “the Great Moderation.” A growing body of research has focused on The Great Moderation and its possible explanati...
متن کاملMonetary Policy and the Great Moderation Monetary Policy and the Great Moderation
Increased focus on price stability by a discretionary central bank reduces output and price volatility in a model with rationally inattentive …rms. The volatility reduction can be arbitrarily large, e.g., imply a 'Great Moderation', and is particularly pronounced when …rms can process information almost perfectly. The model-implied vector auto-regressive (VAR) dynamics are consistent with the e...
متن کاملBeyond Inventory Management: The Bullwhip Effect and the Great Moderation
We resurrect the question if improved business practices contributed to increased macroeconomic stability since the 1980s – the Great Moderation. While previous studies on the issue are limited to examining inventory management, we analyse the role of better supply chain management on enhancing firms’ ability to coordinate their production. By investigating ordering and backordering behaviour i...
متن کاملIs the Great Moderation Over? An Empirical Analysis
The economy of the United States was markedly less volatile in the past two to three decades than in prior periods. The nation enjoyed long economic expansions in each of the last three decades, interrupted by recessions in 1990-91 and 2001 that were mild by historical standards. While it has proven difficult to conclusively pinpoint the causes of the reduced volatility, candidates include stru...
متن کامل